Is GPS satellites constellation at risk?
Summary of the GAO findings:
“In recent years, the Air Force has struggled to successfully build GPS satellites within cost and schedule goals; it encountered significant technical problems that still threaten its delivery schedule; and it struggled with a different contractor. As a result, the current IIF satellite program has overrun its original cost estimate by about $870 million and the launch of its first satellite has been delayed to November 2009—almost 3 years late.
Further, while the Air Force is structuring the new GPS IIIA program to prevent mistakes made on the IIF program, the Air Force is aiming to deploy the next generation of GPS satellites 3 years faster than the IIF satellites. GAO’s analysis found that this schedule is optimistic, given the program’s late start, past trends in space acquisitions, and challenges facing the new contractor. Of particular concern is leadership for GPS acquisition, as GAO and other studies have found the lack of a single point of authority for space programs and frequent turnover in program managers have hampered requirements setting, funding stability, and resource allocation.
If the Air Force does not meet its schedule goals for development of GPS IIIA satellites, there will be an increased likelihood that in 2010, as old satellites begin to fail, the overall GPS constellation will fall below the number of satellites required to provide the level of GPS service that the U.S. government commits to. Such a gap in capability could have wide-ranging impacts on all GPS users […].”
Based on this report GPS Business News asked their views to several GPS experts. According to Dr. Stuart Strickland, director of the Location Strategy Partnership and co-founder of Insiteo, “Were the constellation to fall below this critical threshold [24 satellites], we should expect only minimal impact on the vast majority of outdoor, in-car, or marine users of GPS. The greatest impact would be on GPS performance in urban canyons and other marginal environments, where visibility of sufficient satellites is already the chief obstacle to providing coverage.”
Kim Kaisti, vice president business development at software GPS company fastrax wireless, shared a similar view in an email to GPS Business News: “with only 20 or 22 satellites in the constellation, instead of 8-10 satellites it could be 7-8 satellites available in open sky environment. In a challenging environment such as an urban canyon the impact might be bigger since the number of satellites seen is lower. In this case the current 5-7 satellites seen in an urban canyon may be reduced to 3-5.” He also added that “closer to equator may have a bigger impact since the satellites on the ‘other side’ of the pole are not seen.”
Continued…
A threat towards GPS accuracy and reliability could also stimulate the geolocation industry to look more closely at alternative systems beyond the GPS technology. John Craig, a long time veteran of the LBS industry (Cambridge Positioning System, Destinator) and today an independent consultant, shared with us his personal thought on that topic: “This would be a good thing if GPS fails a bit. It will force to work on other satellite systems as well as Wi-Fi/Cell-ID triangulation for phones – all you ever need for social networking and local search. Taking GPS for granted makes the industry lazy sometimes.”
With regards to hybrid positioning, Strickland also stated: “GPS has already proven itself ill-suited for indoor applications, where it is now generally recognized that the development of hybrid solutions is required and where their availability would mitigate any small gaps in the GPS constellation.”
Another alternative could be the soon-to-be, competing GNSS constellations, such as Glonass, Galileo or Compass. However, most of the satellites of these constellations are still on the ground, if built at all. But moving forward they could probably play a role in 2012-2013 and onwards.
“Assuming the GLONASS and Galileo launch schedules could catch up – a big assumption – and that multi-mode receivers supporting these technologies become commercially available, this could be a marketing opportunity for companies supporting those constellations”, noticed Strickland.
At a time where many US troops are on the ground relying on GPS it is clear that this GAO report will make some noise and push the Department of Defense and the U.S. Air Force to quickly react. It is however a warning call to the companies whose entire business depends on this free, always on constellation of satellites.
The entire GAO report can be downloaded here
